Polycab India DCF Value Analysis April 2026
Polycab India Limited is India’s largest manufacturer of wires and cables by volume and revenue, holding a commanding 26–27% share in the organised domestic market. Founded in 1964 by the Jaisinghani family and listed in 2019, Polycab has built a manufacturing behemoth with 25+ facilities, 10,600+ SKUs, and distribution through 4,000+ authorised dealers and distributors across India. The company achieved a record milestone in FY25 — revenues surpassing ₹220 billion (₹22,000+ Cr) and profits crossing ₹20 billion (₹2,000+ Cr), as confirmed by the management.
Polycab FY25 Milestone: Revenues exceeded ₹22,408 Cr and profits ₹2,020 Cr — the highest-ever for any company in the Indian electrical wires & cables industry.
The business operates across three segments: Wires & Cables (W&C) — the core at ~84% of FY25 revenues; Fast Moving Electrical Goods (FMEG) — fans, LED lights, switches, solar products, pumps, contributing ~12%; and EPC services (~4%). The FMEG segment, while still loss-making or breakeven at the EBIT level, carries significant long-term optionality as Polycab leverages its distribution strength to build a consumer electricals franchise akin to Havells.
Polycab’s manufacturing excellence (ISO 9001/14001 certified) and backward integration into copper rods have given it a meaningful cost advantage. The recently completed NCLT-approved merger of Uniglobus Electricals into Polycab (effective 27 March 2026) adds capacity and integration depth.
Polycab has delivered exceptional financial performance since listing — revenue has grown at ~25% CAGR over the last 4 years, with PAT growing even faster due to margin expansion and operating leverage. The company’s EBITDA margin of 13%+ places it well ahead of Indian cable sector peers, supported by its backward integration, premium product mix, and efficient working capital management.
| Metric | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | TTM (Dec25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 8,792 | 12,204 | 14,108 | 18,039 | 22,408 | 27,005 |
| YoY Growth (%) | — | 38.8% | 15.6% | 27.9% | 24.2% | ~20.5% |
| EBITDA (₹ Cr) | 1,098 | 1,252 | 1,838 | 2,471 | 2,943 | 3,845 |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 12.5% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 14.2% |
| Net Profit (₹ Cr) | 882 | 909 | 1,271 | 1,784 | 2,020 | 2,657 |
| EPS Basic (₹) | 59.2 | 60.9 | 84.9 | 118.9 | 134.3 | 174.5 |
| PAT Margin (%) | 10.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.7% |
| FCF / Share (₹) | 71.2 | (0.99) | 63.3 | 29.4 | 55.6 | 126.7 |
| Dividend / Share (₹) | 10 | 14 | 20 | 30 | 35 | — |
| PAT CAGR (FY21–FY25) | ~23% CAGR | Revenue CAGR ~26% | |||||
Q3 FY26 (Dec 2025) was strong — net profit rose 35.9% YoY to ₹621.7 Cr. The TTM profit is already ₹2,657 Cr (well above FY25’s ₹2,020 Cr), implying EPS of ₹174.5 — a jump of 30%+. Polycab’s EBITDA margin is rising toward the 14%+ range in TTM, reflecting improved operating leverage and FMEG scale.
The DCF model projects 10-year FCF using WACC of 12% and terminal growth rate of 5%. Polycab’s FCF has been improving as the heavy capex cycle of FY22–FY24 tapers. The company’s net cash position (~₹972 Cr net cash as of Sep 2025) strengthens the equity value.
| Year | FCF Est. (₹ Cr) | Growth | Discount Factor | PV of FCF (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY26E | 1,700 | 103%* | 0.893 | 1,518 |
| FY27E | 2,300 | 35% | 0.797 | 1,833 |
| FY28E | 2,860 | 24% | 0.712 | 2,036 |
| FY29E | 3,440 | 20% | 0.636 | 2,188 |
| FY30E | 4,040 | 17% | 0.567 | 2,291 |
| FY31E | 4,640 | 15% | 0.507 | 2,352 |
| FY32E | 5,240 | 13% | 0.452 | 2,368 |
| FY33E | 5,840 | 11% | 0.404 | 2,360 |
| FY34E | 6,360 | 9% | 0.361 | 2,296 |
| FY35E | 6,870 | 8% | 0.322 | 2,212 |
| Sum of PV (FCF) | — | — | — | 21,454 |
| Terminal Value (PV) | — | — | — | 31,350 |
| Enterprise Value | — | — | — | 52,804 |
| Add: Net Cash | — | — | — | +972 |
| Equity Value | — | — | — | 53,776 |
*FY26E FCF elevated from TTM momentum. Polycab’s premium to DCF reflects its quality moat, scale, brand, and FMEG optionality — typical for industry leaders. Use alongside PE/EV multiples.
The large premium to DCF value is typical for a market leader with exceptional brand equity and optionality. Analyst consensus (25 buy, 2 sell) carries a 12-month average target of ₹8,575, with Citi’s bullish target at ₹9,500. Using a blended 45x FY27E EPS of ₹165 gives ₹7,425, while 50x implies ₹8,250 — consistent with the ₹7,125–₹8,500 range.
Polycab’s ₹300 billion data centre opportunity represents a structural shift — hyperscale investments from Google, Microsoft, and Meta in India require massive cable infrastructure, and Polycab, with its EHV capability and large-scale manufacturing, is best positioned to capture this. Meanwhile, FMEG growth continues at 20%+ and is expected to turn EBIT-positive by FY27–28, adding meaningful incremental earnings.
Revenue Estimates:
FY26E: ₹26,500 Cr (+18% YoY)
FY27E: ₹31,500 Cr (+19%)
FY28E: ₹37,000 Cr (+17%)
EPS Estimates:
FY26E: ₹150–155
FY27E: ₹165–175
FY28E: ₹200+
Growth Levers:
| Company | Mkt Cap (Cr) | Revenue FY25 (Cr) | PAT FY25 (Cr) | PAT Margin | P/E (TTM) | P/B | EBITDA Margin | 1-Yr Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polycab India | 1,07,000 | 22,408 | 2,020 | 9.0% | 43.5x | ~10x | 13.1% | +33% |
| KEI Industries | 38,604 | 9,736 | 696 | 7.1% | 44.8x | 6.2x | 10.2% | +14% |
| Finolex Cables | ~10,000 | ~5,000 | ~450 | ~9% | ~22x | ~3x | ~11% | — |
| RR Kabel | ~7,500 | ~4,800 | ~200 | ~4.2% | ~37x | ~5x | ~7% | — |
| Polycab Premium | ~2.75x KEI by Mkt Cap | +2.9pp EBITDA margin lead | Superior scale moat | |||||||
Polycab commands a significant valuation premium over peers — and it’s warranted. The company has India’s largest cable distribution network, the strongest EBITDA margins in the sector, superior FCF generation, and meaningful consumer brand equity in FMEG. Its TTM EPS of ₹174.5 vs. KEI’s ₹90 reflects the scale differential. Polycab’s EV/EBITDA of ~29x compares favourably with its 3-year average of ~31x, suggesting the current price has corrected meaningfully from the Jan 2026 peak of ₹7,948.
