
Havells India (HAVELLS) Stock Analysis Sept 2026 — DCF, SOTP & Share Price Target
Havells India Ltd — Stock Analysis & Share Price Target
A detailed Havells India (NSE: HAVELLS) stock analysis covering DCF valuation, sum-of-the-parts of the core electricals business versus the Lloyd consumer-durables arm, peer multiples against Polycab and Voltas, and a share price target framework — for investors evaluating India’s leading Fast-Moving Electrical Goods (FMEG) major.
Business Overview
Havells India Limited is India’s most recognised Fast-Moving Electrical Goods (FMEG) company and a leading power distribution equipment manufacturer, tracing its roots to a Delhi electrical trading shop acquired by Qimat Rai Gupta (QRG) in 1971 and built into a full-line electricals major under the Gupta family, now led by Chairman & Managing Director Anil Rai Gupta. The promoter group holds its stake principally through QRG Investments and Holdings Limited, the promoter holding company.
The company operates across six reporting segments: Cables (flexible, power, LAN, CCTV and speaker cables — the single largest segment at ~39% of FY26 revenue and its fastest-growing line), Lloyd Consumer (air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators and televisions, acquired in 2017 and run as a distinct sub-brand, ~18% of revenue), Electrical Consumer Durables (fans, water heaters and appliances, ~17%), Switchgears (domestic and industrial switchgear, capacitors, switches, ~12%), Lighting & Fixtures (professional and consumer luminaires, ~7%), and Others (motors, solar, pumps, water purifiers, personal grooming, ~8%).
Havells sells through an extensive multi-tier distribution network of electricians, retailers and exclusive brand stores across urban and semi-urban India, supported by manufacturing facilities in Faridabad, Alwar, Neemrana, Haridwar, Sahibabad, Baddi and Sri City. The company holds CARE’s highest corporate governance rating (CG-1) and is classified almost debt-free, funding growth largely through internal accruals.
Historical Financials
Havells has compounded consolidated sales at an 11% CAGR over ten years and 17% over five years, though growth has moderated to a 10% TTM pace amid a cyclical demand slowdown in summer products (fans, air coolers) and pricing pressure in Lloyd. Operating margin has structurally stepped down from a 13–15% band (FY17–FY21) to a 9–10% band since FY23, reflecting the lower-margin Lloyd consumer-durables mix, competitive intensity in cables, and input-cost volatility. Profit growth has nevertheless held up better than margins would suggest (18% TTM), aided by other income and a lower effective tax rate.
| ₹ Cr | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 10,457 | 13,938 | 16,911 | 18,590 | 21,778 | 22,528 | 23,591 |
| Operating Profit | 1,589 | 1,775 | 1,621 | 1,881 | 2,175 | 2,241 | 2,150 |
| OPM % | 15% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% |
| Depreciation | 249 | 261 | 296 | 338 | 400 | 432 | 447 |
| PBT | 1,438 | 1,607 | 1,447 | 1,707 | 1,990 | 2,210 | 2,132 |
| Net Profit | 1,044 | 1,196 | 1,072 | 1,271 | 1,470 | 1,689 | 1,631 |
| EPS (₹) | 16.68 | 19.10 | 17.11 | 20.28 | 23.48 | 26.95 | 26.05 |
| ROE % | 10-Yr: 19% · 5-Yr: 19% · 3-Yr: 19% · Last Year: 19% | — | |||||
Balance-sheet strengths
- Almost debt-free (₹265 Cr borrowings vs ₹9,456 Cr net worth, FY26)
- Dividend payout maintained at a healthy 37–44% over the last five years
- ROCE consistently in the 22–30% band over the past decade
Financial watch-points
- OPM has compressed from a 13–15% band to a 9–10% band since FY22
- Q1 FY27 OPM fell to 7%, the weakest in the last 13 quarters, on summer-product weakness
- Free cash flow (₹156 Cr in FY26) has lagged reported profit due to heavy capex and working-capital build
DCF Valuation
The DCF uses a 10-year explicit FCFF forecast starting from FY26 (revenue ₹22,528 Cr, EBITDA margin ~10%), assuming a gradual moderation of revenue growth from 12–13% toward 10% as the base scales, and a gradual recovery in EBITDA margin from ~10% to ~12.5% as Lloyd matures and cables/switchgear operating leverage plays out. Capex is modelled at ~3% of sales tapering marginally, tax at 25%, WACC at 12%, and terminal growth at 5%.
10-Year FCFF Projection (₹ Cr, WACC 12%, Terminal Growth 5%)
| Year | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | FY34 | FY35 | FY36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25,231 | 28,259 | 31,933 | 36,084 | 40,775 | 45,668 | 51,148 | 56,774 | 62,451 | 68,696 |
| EBITDA % | 10.3% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 12.5% |
| NOPAT | 1,571 | 1,823 | 2,132 | 2,489 | 2,905 | 3,357 | 3,836 | 4,343 | 4,825 | 5,410 |
| FCFF | 1,224 | 1,519 | 1,883 | 2,279 | 2,708 | 3,186 | 3,670 | 4,247 | 4,784 | 5,366 |
| PV of FCFF | 1,093 | 1,211 | 1,341 | 1,448 | 1,536 | 1,614 | 1,660 | 1,715 | 1,725 | 1,728 |
At a CMP of ₹1,088, the market is pricing Havells well above its DCF-implied intrinsic value, i.e. the current price embeds materially higher growth and/or margin-recovery assumptions than this base case, or a lower cost of equity than 12% for a franchise of this quality — a gap explored further under Relative Valuation and SOTP below.
Relative Valuation & Peer Multiples
Against listed FMEG/consumer-electricals peers, Havells trades at a premium to pure-play cable makers like Finolex but at a discount to the higher-growth Polycab, and broadly in line with V-Guard. Applying the peer-average P/E (ex-Havells, excluding loss-making outliers) of ~39x to Havells’ TTM EPS of ₹26.05 implies a relative-valuation fair value of roughly ₹1,020–1,030 — close to CMP, underscoring that Havells is priced roughly in line with sector multiples rather than at an outright premium or discount.
| Company | CMP (₹) | Mkt Cap (₹ Cr) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE % | Div Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Havells India | 1,088 | 68,294 | 41.0 | 7.2 | 19.0 | 0.92 |
| Polycab India | 9,584 | 1,44,369 | 57.4 | 12.0 | 23.0 | 0.49 |
| V-Guard Industries | ~321–451 | ~14,000–19,600 | ~38–48 | ~5.9–11.0 | 13.0–13.8 | 0.31–0.47 |
| Finolex Cables | ~783–800 | ~11,976–15,905 | 18.1–22.3 | 2.1–2.6 | 11.7–11.8 | 0.77–1.02 |
| Crompton Greaves Consumer | ~283 | ~15,354–18,245 | NM (loss) | ~5.1–5.8 | –8.2 to 18.7 | ~1.1 |
| Voltas | ~1,283–1,436 | ~42,460–47,508 | 70–120 | ~5.0–5.9 | low single-digit | 0.31–0.49 |
| Bajaj Electricals | ~352–538 | ~4,065–5,802 | NM (loss) | ~2.5 | –5.7 | ~0.85 |
Peer figures collated from screener.in and Motilal Oswal peer-comparison data across Aug–Sep 2026 trading sessions and are indicative of relative positioning rather than a single-day snapshot; Crompton, Voltas and Bajaj Electricals’ P/E ratios are distorted by depressed or negative recent earnings.
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
EPV capitalises current, no-growth sustainable earnings power rather than projecting future growth. Using TTM EBIT of ~₹1,703 Cr, a normalised 24–25% tax rate (NOPAT ~₹1,294 Cr) and the 12% WACC used in the DCF (i.e. assuming zero incremental growth or reinvestment), EPV works out to approximately ₹10,783 Cr, or ~₹172/share; adding back net cash takes this to roughly ₹191/share.
The wide gap between EPV (~₹191) and CMP (₹1,088) simply confirms that almost none of Havells’ current valuation is attributable to today’s earnings alone — the market is overwhelmingly paying for future growth and margin recovery. EPV is the most conservative of the six methods here and is weighted lightly in the final verdict for that reason.
Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP)
Havells’ two businesses have structurally different economics: the core Electricals & FMEG franchise (Cables, Switchgears, ECD, Lighting — ~82% of FY26 revenue) runs healthier, more defensible margins on the strength of brand and distribution, while Lloyd Consumer Durables (~18% of revenue) is a lower-margin, more competitive air-conditioner/appliance business more comparable to Voltas or Blue Star than to core Havells. Valuing each on its own multiple gives a cleaner read than a single blended multiple.
| Segment | FY26 Revenue (₹ Cr) | EBITDA Margin | EBITDA (₹ Cr) | EV/EBITDA | Segment EV (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Electricals & FMEG | 18,473 | ~16.0% | 2,956 | 18.0x | 53,208 |
| Lloyd Consumer Durables | 4,055 | ~4.0% | 162 | 12.0x | 1,944 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 55,152 | ||||
The SOTP fair value of ~₹900/share sits between the conservative DCF/EPV estimates and the peer-multiple-based ₹1,020–1,030, and illustrates that a meaningful part of the valuation gap versus CMP stems from Lloyd — a business that would need to demonstrably re-rate on margin improvement (structurally still sub-5% EBITDA margin) for the SOTP value to close further toward CMP.
Buy Range
Blending DCF (₹674), EPV (₹191), NAV (₹151), Relative Valuation (~₹1,026) and SOTP (₹900) into a weighted fair value of approximately ₹718/share (see Verdict), the following buy zones apply for investors building a position with a margin of safety:
Buy Scenario
Bear Case Entry
A further correction toward ₹800–850, likely triggered by another weak quarter in Lloyd or continued RM-cost/summer-demand pressure, would bring the stock close to the DCF/SOTP blended zone and materially improve the margin of safety for long-term accumulation.
Base Case Entry
Gradual accumulation in the ₹900–1,000 band on any broad market weakness, using SIP-style tranches, balances the quality of the franchise against the current valuation premium without waiting for a deep correction that may not arrive.
Bull Case Entry
If margins recover faster than modelled (Lloyd turning sustainably profitable, cables/switchgear operating leverage playing out sooner), the fair-value estimates above would move higher and CMP itself could become a reasonable long-term entry point.
Sell Range
CMP of ₹1,088 already sits inside the Reduce/Trim zone relative to the weighted fair value — existing holders with large unrealised gains may consider trimming into strength rather than adding fresh exposure at current levels.
Sell Scenario
Overvalued
A rally toward ₹1,250–1,450 without commensurate EPS delivery would represent pure multiple expansion on an already-full valuation, a natural point to book partial profits.
Exit Trigger
Two consecutive quarters of OPM below 8% (versus the current 9% TTM) alongside continued FII selling and no improvement in Lloyd’s margin trajectory would be a signal to reduce meaningfully.
Structural Break
Sustained market-share loss in cables to Polycab/RR Kabel/KEI, or a permanent re-rating of Lloyd’s competitive position versus Voltas/LG/Daikin/Samsung in room ACs, would undermine the core investment thesis and warrant a full exit.
Future Growth
Cables remains the primary growth engine, riding India’s real-estate and infrastructure capex cycle, the formalisation of an unorganised-to-organised shift under BIS quality norms, and rising demand for data/LAN and solar cabling. Switchgear and Lighting benefit from housing and commercial construction plus energy-efficiency retrofits. Electrical Consumer Durables should see steady premiumisation in fans and appliances. Lloyd, while currently margin-dilutive, is positioned to benefit structurally from India’s still-low room-AC penetration and the PLI-linked push toward local manufacturing, though profitability improvement here is the single biggest swing factor for the stock’s medium-term re-rating. Continued capacity expansion (including at Sri City) supports management’s typical guidance of double-digit consolidated revenue growth over the medium term, contingent on margin recovery materialising in tandem.
Risks & Catalysts
Bull Factors
- Decades-old, top-of-mind “Havells” brand and India’s most extensive electrical-goods distribution network
- Almost debt-free balance sheet with consistent 22–25% ROCE
- Rising DII ownership (9% → 18% over three years) even as FIIs have trimmed, suggesting domestic institutional confidence through the correction
- CARE’s highest corporate-governance rating (CG-1)
- Multi-segment diversification cushions any single-category slowdown
Bear Factors
- Commodity-cost volatility (copper, aluminium, PVC resin) squeezing cable/wire margins
- Intensifying competition in cables (Polycab, RR Kabel, KEI Industries) and in room ACs (Voltas, LG, Daikin, Samsung)
- Lloyd’s structurally thin (~4%) and volatile EBITDA margin remains a drag on consolidated profitability
- Steady FII exit (24% → 16% over three years) even as the stock corrected ~32% from its 52-week high
- Valuation (41x TTM P/E) leaves little room for execution disappointment
Institutional Ownership
Havells is a promoter-controlled company: QRG Investments and Holdings Limited, the Gupta family’s promoter holding vehicle, along with Anil Gupta and Surjit Gupta individually, together account for the bulk of the 59.35% promoter stake. The Life Insurance Corporation of India has historically been the largest individually disclosed domestic institutional holder (~4–5% of equity per past disclosures); beyond this, entity-level fund-house detail (which specific AMCs and FIIs hold how much) was not reliably available from public aggregator sources at the time of writing, so that granular table has been omitted rather than estimated — investors wanting scheme-wise or FPI-wise detail should refer directly to the BSE/NSE shareholding filings.
| Category | Sep’23 | Mar’24 | Sep’24 | Mar’25 | Sep’25 | Mar’26 | Jun’26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Promoters | 59.43% | 59.43% | 59.41% | 59.41% | 59.38% | 59.38% | 59.35% |
| FIIs | 24.19% | 24.83% | 24.76% | 22.31% | 19.28% | 16.93% | 15.91% |
| DIIs | 9.38% | 9.77% | 10.10% | 12.63% | 15.35% | 17.50% | 18.04% |
| Government | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.17% | 0.23% | 0.23% |
| Public | 6.90% | 5.85% | 5.58% | 5.52% | 5.81% | 5.96% | 6.47% |
| No. of Shareholders | 2,24,208 | 2,24,428 | 2,13,745 | 2,46,910 | 2,66,872 | 2,74,520 | 3,03,644 |
The clearest ownership trend over the past three years is a steady rotation from foreign to domestic institutional hands — FII holding has nearly halved from 24.2% to 15.9% while DII holding has almost doubled from 9.4% to 18.0% — coinciding with the stock’s ~32% drawdown from its 52-week high. This is consistent with domestic mutual funds and insurers viewing the correction as a buying opportunity in a quality franchise even as global funds have reduced exposure, possibly on relative-valuation or sector-rotation grounds.
Verdict: Weighted Synthesis
Weighted Fair Value ≈ ₹718/share vs CMP ₹1,088
Havells remains one of India’s best-run electrical-goods franchises — a dominant brand, an almost debt-free balance sheet, ~25% ROCE, and a distribution moat that is genuinely difficult to replicate. But the cash-flow-based methods (DCF and EPV) and the segment-based SOTP all point to a stock priced well ahead of what today’s earnings and a conservative growth path justify, while only the peer-multiple method — itself inflated by a broadly expensive FMEG/consumer-durables sector — brings fair value close to CMP. This analysis suggests investors already holding the stock treat rallies toward ₹1,250+ as opportunities to trim, while those looking to build a position wait for a better entry in the ₹800–950 zone, or accumulate gradually only if conviction on a multi-year Lloyd margin turnaround is high. A medium-to-long-term horizon (3–5 years) is appropriate given the quality of the underlying business, even though near-term valuation comfort is limited.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Havells India a good buy at the current share price?
At a CMP of ₹1,088, Havells trades above its DCF (₹674) and SOTP (₹900) fair-value estimates but close to peer-multiple-based fair value (~₹1,026). This analysis suggests the stock sits in a Reduce/Trim zone for existing holders, with better accumulation opportunities likely in the ₹800–950 band.
What is the share price target for Havells India?
Blending DCF, relative valuation, SOTP, EPV and NAV into a weighted average gives a fair value of approximately ₹718/share, versus a peer-multiple-only estimate of ~₹1,026/share — the wide range reflects how much of the current price depends on assumptions about Lloyd’s margin recovery and continued double-digit cable growth.
Why has Havells’ operating margin declined in recent years?
Operating margin has compressed from a 13–15% band (FY17–FY21) to roughly 9–10% since FY23, driven by the lower-margin Lloyd consumer-durables business, competitive intensity in cables, and input-cost volatility in copper, aluminium and PVC resin.
Who are Havells India’s main competitors?
In cables, Havells competes with Polycab, RR Kabel and KEI Industries; in consumer durables and room ACs (via Lloyd), with Voltas, Blue Star, LG, Daikin and Samsung; and in fans/appliances/switchgear with Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, Bajaj Electricals, V-Guard and Orient Electric.
Why have FIIs been reducing their stake in Havells while DIIs increase theirs?
FII holding has fallen from 24.2% (Sep 2023) to 15.9% (Jun 2026) while DII holding has risen from 9.4% to 18.0% over the same period, coinciding with the stock’s correction from 52-week highs — a pattern consistent with domestic funds viewing the pullback as a buying opportunity even as some global funds have trimmed exposure on valuation or sector-rotation grounds.