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Home/Power & Energy/Transformers & Rectifiers (India) Ltd DCF Valuation & Share Price Analysis Aug 2026
Power & Energy

Transformers & Rectifiers (India) Ltd DCF Valuation & Share Price Analysis Aug 2026

August 13, 2026 6 Min Read
Zumedha Equity Research
Research . Analysis . Insights
CMP
₹291 (as on 13 Aug 2026)
NSE: TARIL · BSE: 532928
Overvalued · Reduce on Rallies

Transformers & Rectifiers (India) Ltd

Power, Furnace & Rectifier Transformer Manufacturer — Extra High Voltage & Export-Facing Capacity Build-Out
NSETARIL
BSE532928
ISININE763I01026
Face Value₹1
52W H/L₹552 / ₹224
Mkt Cap₹8,742 Cr
Shares O/S~30.04 Cr
IndexNifty Smallcap 250, Nifty 500
Promoter Holding64.4%
CMP
₹291
Mkt Cap
₹8,742 Cr
52W H/L
552/224
P/E
33.8x
Revenue (TTM)
₹2,552 Cr
PAT (TTM)
₹269 Cr
EBITDA Margin
15.2%
01

Business Overview

Transformers & Rectifiers (India) Ltd (TARIL), headquartered in Ahmedabad and originally incorporated in 1994 as Triveni Electric Company, is one of India’s established manufacturers of Power, Furnace and Rectifier Transformers. The product portfolio spans single-phase power transformers up to 500 MVA and 1200kV class, series and shunt reactors, mobile substations, earthing transformers and specialty converter-duty units, sold on a B2B model to power generation, transmission, distribution and industrial customers including NTPC, PGCIL, GETCO and state electricity boards.

The company operates four wholly-owned subsidiaries and a switchgear joint venture (T&R Switchgear Pvt Ltd), and has leaned into export markets and reverse/backward integration over FY25–FY26 to widen margins. Production volume rose to 33,000 MVA in FY26 from 29,118 MVA in FY25, and the company completed a ₹500 crore QIP in FY25 to fund capacity expansion and deleveraging.

Incorporated
1994
HQ
Ahmedabad
FY26 Volume
33,000 MVA
YoY Volume Growth
+13.3%
Promoter Holding
64.4%
FII Holding
7.8%
02

Historical Financials

Consolidated revenue has scaled from ₹1,158 Cr (FY22) to ₹2,509 Cr (FY26), a period marked by sharp operating leverage — EBITDA margin expanded from 6% to ~15–16% as the order mix shifted toward higher-voltage EHV transformers and export contracts. Profit growth has been exceptional on a 5-year view but has flattened on a trailing-twelve-month basis, with quarterly earnings turning volatile through FY26.

Rs CrFY22FY23FY24FY25FY26TTM
Sales1,1581,3961,2912,0172,5092,552
EBITDA74121134327383388
OPM %6%9%10%16%15%15%
Net Profit144247216272269
EPS (₹)0.531.541.567.148.818.61
Sales CAGR (3yr)
22%
Sales CAGR (5yr)
28%
Profit CAGR (5yr)
106%
Profit Growth (TTM)
~0%
ROE (Last FY)
19.1%
ROCE (Last FY)
23.3%
03

DCF Valuation

A 10-year FCFF DCF is built on revenue growth tapering from 20% to 7%, EBITDA margin expanding from 16% to a steady-state 18% by Year 5, a 25% tax rate, capex at 4% of sales, and incremental working capital at 12% of incremental revenue — reflecting TARIL’s currently elevated cash-conversion cycle (199 days in FY26). WACC of 12% and terminal growth of 5% are applied per house methodology.

Rs CrY1Y2Y3Y5Y7Y10
Revenue3,0623,6744,3355,7337,1919,141
EBITDA4906067371,0321,2941,645
FCFF196248317477618830
PV of Explicit FCFF
₹2,506 Cr
PV of Terminal Value
₹4,009 Cr
Enterprise Value
₹6,515 Cr
Net Debt (est.)
₹273 Cr
DCF Fair Value / Share (WACC 12%, g 5%)
₹208

Sensitivity range across WACC 10–14% and terminal growth 4–6%: ₹153 – ₹307.

04

Relative Valuation & Peer Multiples

Against listed transformer peers, TARIL trades broadly in line with — to a modest premium over — the sector median on P/E, and at a premium on P/B given its thinner capital base and recent equity dilution. The peer set is capital-goods heavy and richly valued as a group, reflecting the multi-year India power transmission capex cycle.

CompanyMkt Cap (Cr)P/E (x)P/B (x)ROE %
TARIL8,74233.85.819.1
Voltamp Transformers~9,500~31~5.3~17.0
Bharat Bijlee~3,400~23——
Indo Tech Transformers~1,770~23——

Peer figures are approximate, sourced from recent secondary market data (Jul–Aug 2026); verify against live terminal data before publishing.

05

Asset-Based Valuation / NAV

TARIL is not an asset-heavy business relative to its earnings power — fixed assets of ₹250 Cr sit against a market cap of ₹8,742 Cr. Book value stands at ₹50.5/share (P/B 5.8x). An asset-based approach is therefore a weak anchor here; it serves only as a deep-value floor check, well below both the DCF and current market price.

Book Value / Share
₹50.5
P/B (CMP)
5.8x
Net Fixed Assets
₹250 Cr
06

Earnings Power Value (EPV)

Capitalizing normalized TTM NOPAT (~₹269 Cr) at the 12% WACC, with zero credit given for future growth, yields an EPV of roughly ₹75/share. This is the conservative floor if the current growth and margin trajectory were to stall entirely — useful as a downside anchor rather than a target, and it sits well below CMP, underlining how growth-dependent the current valuation is.

EPV per Share (No-Growth Floor)
₹75
07

Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP)

TARIL is effectively a single-segment manufacturing business; the T&R Switchgear JV and export subsidiaries are not separately disclosed at a scale material to overall valuation. SOTP therefore collapses to the core DCF-derived enterprise value, with no material standalone value attributable to the JV/subsidiary stack at this stage of disclosure.

SegmentBasisValue (₹ Cr)
Core Transformer & Reactor BusinessDCF (FCFF)6,515
T&R Switchgear JV & SubsidiariesNot separately material—
Total Enterprise Value6,515
08

Buy Range

Entry zones below are anchored to the DCF fair value band, requiring a margin of safety before fresh accumulation given the working-capital and earnings-volatility flags in the current numbers.

Strong Buy
Below ₹170
Accumulate
₹170 – 195
Fair Value
₹195 – 215
09

Buy Scenario

Bear
₹153
WACC 14%; growth deceleration persists, WC stays stretched, margin stuck near 15%.
Base
₹208
WACC 12%; current assumption set — margin ramps to 18%, WC intensity persists.
Bull
₹307
WACC 10%; WC normalizes, export mix scales, margin expands past 19-20%.
10

Sell Range

At CMP ₹291, the stock already sits above the base-case DCF fair value with limited margin of safety. The zones below mark where the premium to intrinsic value becomes progressively harder to justify.

Reduce
₹260 – 300
Exit
₹300 – 330
Avoid Fresh Buying
Above ₹330
11

Sell Scenario

Overvalued
₹290+
Trading meaningfully above DCF fair value with earnings volatility unresolved.
Exit Trigger
2 Weak Qtrs
Two consecutive quarters of margin compression or order-inflow slowdown.
Structural Break
WC Deterioration
Cash conversion cycle extends further and FCF stays structurally negative.
12

Future Growth Drivers

India’s transmission and distribution capex cycle — driven by grid strengthening, renewable evacuation infrastructure and rural/industrial electrification — underpins multi-year demand for EHV transformers. TARIL’s FY26 production of 33,000 MVA (+13% YoY), its ₹500 Cr QIP-funded capacity expansion, growing export order mix, and reverse-integration investments to protect margins are the principal growth levers. Order wins from PGCIL, GETCO and state utilities remain the key near-term catalysts to track.

13

Risks & Catalysts

Bull Catalysts

  • Sustained PGCIL/state utility order inflow and export mix expansion
  • Margin expansion via backward/reverse integration
  • Working capital normalization unlocking positive FCF
  • Sector-wide re-rating on India’s grid capex cycle

Bear Risks

  • Elevated and lengthening cash conversion cycle (199 days FY26)
  • Negative operating and free cash flow in FY26 despite profit growth
  • Quarterly earnings volatility — TTM profit growth near flat
  • Declining promoter holding (-10.6% over 3 years) and FII flows sensitive to broader risk sentiment
  • Valuation already pricing in near-flawless execution

Zumedha Verdict

TARIL has built a genuinely strong operating franchise on the back of India’s transmission capex upcycle — production volumes, order wins and margins have all moved meaningfully higher since FY23. But the quality of that growth has softened in the trailing twelve months: profit growth has flattened, the cash conversion cycle has stretched to 199 days, and FY26 free cash flow turned sharply negative even as reported profit grew. Our base-case DCF, built on a still-generous 18% steady-state EBITDA margin and continued double-digit revenue growth, arrives at a fair value of ₹208/share — meaningfully below the current market price of ₹291. The peer-relative multiple looks more defensible than the cash-flow-based value, suggesting the market is pricing TARIL more on sector narrative and order-book optics than on demonstrated free cash generation. We would not chase the stock at current levels; a pullback toward the ₹195–215 fair-value band, alongside clear evidence of working-capital normalization, would materially improve the risk-reward.

This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Valuations are based on assumptions that may not materialize; actual results may differ materially. Zumedha Equity Research and its authors hold no responsibility for investment decisions made based on this content. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor and conduct your own due diligence before investing. Data as of 13 Aug 2026, sourced from company filings, exchange disclosures and third-party financial data providers; verify before publishing or acting on it.

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