Revenue has compounded at about 15% a year between FY24 and FY26 and is running roughly 35% above last year in H1 FY27, almost entirely on exports and electric scooters. EBITDA margin has stayed in a narrow 19.7–20.9% band even as the margin-dilutive Chetak scaled up, which points to favourable USD/INR realisation and a richer motorcycle mix. The company paid out roughly 100% of FY26 PAT through a ₹150 dividend and a ₹5,633 crore buyback at ₹12,000, with free cash flow accretion above ₹8,000 crore. Consolidated FY26 PAT of ₹10,744 crore includes a one-off KTM fair-value gain and should not be treated as recurring.

A 12% discount rate is demanding for a debt-free business earning close to 30% on equity, which is why the DCF sits below the market price. The current price of ₹10,377 is reached only if the discount rate falls to about 11% with terminal growth near 6%, which would need exports and electric scooters to keep compounding well beyond FY30. Terminal value contributes over half of the enterprise value, so a prolonged export slowdown or sustained margin slippage would pull the value down quickly. Growth assumptions are Zumedha estimates.

Bajaj Auto trades close to the industry multiple of about 23.8x and well below TVS and Eicher, despite higher margins than TVS and a larger cash pile than either. A 22x multiple on FY27E EPS is applied because FY27 earnings growth of roughly 30% is export-driven and less predictable than domestic demand, which justifies a small discount to the stock’s own trailing 24x. Hero’s lower multiple shows how the market prices domestic-only exposure, while the TVS premium shows how much it pays for EV and market-share momentum.

On book value the stock looks expensive at about 6.9x, but that is normal for an asset-light manufacturer returning close to 30% on equity and paying out nearly all earnings. NAV is therefore a floor reference, not a valuation anchor. The more useful reading is that the business needs little capital to grow, which is what supports the high payout and the ₹15,500 crore cash pool.

EPV capitalises today’s earnings with zero growth, so it shows how much of the ₹10,377 price rests on future expansion: roughly 60% of the price is a bet that growth continues. The figure is deliberately harsh for a compounder and carries only a 10% weight, but it is a useful reminder that the price already reflects record margins, strong export volumes and a successful EV ramp-up.

The core business is valued at 16x EBITDA, a moderate multiple for a company with 20%+ margins and net cash, because the EBITDA includes a growing share of lower-margin electric scooters and export profits that depend on currency. The KTM stake is held at a conservative estimate: consolidated Q2 EBITDA of about ₹4,896 crore against standalone ₹4,172 crore shows KTM adding operating profit but little to net profit so far, so a visible turnaround would be upside not captured here. Segment-level EBITDA is not disclosed in the sources used, so a single blended multiple is applied.

News and sentiment overlay. Positives: Q2 FY27 PAT of ₹3,354 crore beat estimates of about ₹3,156–3,178 crore, EBITDA margin rose 40 bps to 20.9%, October sales grew 14% after the September miss, and the ₹5,633 crore buyback at ₹12,000 plus a ₹150 dividend support payout yield. Negatives: the stock fell about 8% on 1 October when September sales rose only 5% against 11–12% expected, with domestic sales down 9% and domestic two-wheelers down 12%; exports are now over half of volumes with Nigeria still at about half of peak; component inflation from electronics demand and the KTM turnaround remain drags. Net adjustment: +2%, which is a judgement and could change with monthly sales data.

A named top-10 fund-house table with percentages could not be sourced reliably, so it is omitted rather than estimated. The September 2026 quarter filing was not available at the time of writing, and figures may lag the live quarter. Scheme-wise and FPI-wise detail is available in the BSE/NSE shareholding filings.