Aster DM Quality Care operates 39 hospitals across 28 cities in nine states, with about 10,600 operational beds (roughly 10,890 on a capacity basis) and around 7,400 clinicians. Its four brands are Aster DM (Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana), CARE Hospitals (Hyderabad, Raipur and other central and south Indian cities), KIMSHEALTH (Thiruvananthapuram) and Evercare. The company says the platform ranks among the top three hospital chains in India by revenue and beds, and it targets more than 15,000 beds over the next three to four years.

Management tracks hospitals in four maturity buckets: mature, focus, emerging and underperforming. Mature hospitals contributed about 73% of Q1 FY27 revenue at roughly 30% EBITDA margin, while emerging units grew revenue about 63% and more than doubled margins to 12.4%. Payor mix is about 83% cash and insurance. The Aster GCC business was hived off in April 2024, so the group is now a pure-play Indian hospital operator, which simplifies the valuation to a domestic cluster-by-cluster story.

Source: Company Q1 FY27 results release (6 Aug 2026), ICICI Direct Retail Research (21 Aug 2026), Motilal Oswal initiation (28 Sep 2026). PF = combined pro forma; the merger became effective 1 Jul 2026.

Reading the legacy Aster numbers alone would understate the new company, because Quality Care roughly doubles the revenue base. The first table shows the legacy Aster track record, where EBITDA compounded at about 26% over FY23–FY26 as margins widened from 15.0% to 19.4%.

The quarterly view shows the Kerala recovery and new-unit ramp-up feeding margins back above 20% in Q1 FY27, after a softer Q3 FY26.

Pro forma view of the combined entity

Source: Company filings and releases, ICICI Direct Retail Research. Pro forma numbers are unaudited, subject to finalisation of merged accounts; verify against filed financials.

For a primer on the method, see Zumedha’s DCF valuation guide with formula and examples.

DCF sensitivity (₹ per share)

Source: Zumedha estimates on company guidance and broker FY28E EBITDA of ₹2,872–3,070 crore. Minority share of 15% follows Prabhudas Lilladher’s estimate; broker views on minority leakage differ, so verify against the merged accounts.

Hospital stocks derated through September–October 2026 and are now quoted at about 20–27x FY28E EV/EBITDA, against 25–35x a year earlier. At the CMP, Aster DM Quality Care trades at about 25x FY28E EBITDA once minority interests are included, which places it in line with the sector rather than at a discount, even though its operating margin is below that of the best-run peers.

A 24x multiple, at the middle of the sector range, and a 50x P/E on FY28E attributable EPS of ₹15.6 give the following outputs. The EPS estimate takes EBITDA of ₹2,980 crore, deducts depreciation of about ₹830 crore and interest of ₹250 crore, adds other income of ₹250 crore, taxes the result at 25.5% and removes a 15% minority share. It sits between ICICI Direct’s ₹9.7 and Motilal Oswal’s ₹18.9 for FY28E.

Source: Business Today, Jefferies, Prabhudas Lilladher, ICICI Direct, Motilal Oswal; Zumedha computation.

Hospitals are asset-heavy, so a replacement-cost lens is a useful floor. Valuing the 10,623 operational beds at a blended ₹1.6 crore per bed, between brownfield and metro greenfield costs, gives about ₹17,000 crore of asset value. After net debt and minorities this is ₹154 per share, compared with an estimated book value of about ₹104 per share at FY27E.

EPV asks what the business is worth if FY28E earnings simply continue without growth. Capitalising normalised NOPAT of about ₹1,695 crore at 12% gives an enterprise value of roughly ₹14,100 crore, or ₹126 per share after net debt and minorities.

The combined entity is valued by hospital maturity, in line with how management reports. Mature hospitals earn about 30% margins and warrant a premium multiple of 26x. Focus units are valued at 22x, while emerging units, which have lower margins but high growth, are valued at 20x on FY28E EBITDA. The split of FY28E EBITDA is a Zumedha assumption built from the Q1 FY27 revenue mix of 73% mature, 15% focus and the balance emerging.

The weighted outcome is heavily influenced by the DCF, which treats growth conservatively, and the relative method, which treats it generously. The weighted fair value of ₹514 is therefore best viewed as a fundamentals-anchored estimate rather than a forecast of where the stock will trade; the market is currently pricing the merger-synergy and expansion story ahead of delivery. For how rating labels differ, see Buy vs Accumulate rating in stocks.

Buy range

At ₹719.55 the stock sits about 40% above weighted fair value, outside all three buy zones. Entry levels in the accumulation zone would imply a price roughly 30% below the CMP.

The probability-weighted value is about ₹495 per share. Even the bull case of ₹590 sits below the CMP, which indicates that the market is discounting outcomes beyond this framework, such as a longer high-growth runway, faster bed additions or a re-rating to the multiples of the largest hospital chains.

The CMP of ₹719.55 falls inside the exit zone, at about 140% of weighted fair value. This is consistent with a stock whose price reflects the best-case merger outcome, ahead of the first combined quarterly numbers due on 6 November 2026.

Management guides to 5–6% volume growth and 7–8% revenue-per-patient growth on a like-for-like basis, with lower-to-mid-teen revenue growth sustainable. Motilal Oswal models FY26–FY28 CAGRs of 19.5% for revenue, 25% for EBITDA and 33% for profit after tax, which is the growth that the market multiple is paying for. The valuation is therefore more sensitive to execution on bed additions and synergy capture than to demand, which has been robust.

The merger reshaped the register. Promoter-group holding rose from 40.4% to about 53.7% because Blackstone, the largest shareholder at 29.71%, came in alongside the Moopen family, whose stake reached 24.58% after buying from TPG-backed Centella Mauritius in September. FII and DII percentages diluted because new shares were issued to Quality Care shareholders. Mutual-fund holding fell from 26.70% (Jun 2026) to 15.93% in July and 20.76% in the September quarter on Trendlyne, which largely reflects that dilution rather than selling: HDFC Small Cap Fund, for example, holds more shares than before.

Key verified holders

Aster DM Quality Care rose about 72% from its 52-week low of ₹519 to a peak near ₹891 in August 2026, on merger completion and brokers’ initiations. It then corrected about 24% to ₹681 by 3 November, forming lower highs near ₹790 in early September and ₹741 in mid-September. The 4 November session added 5.6% to ₹719.55, lifting the price back above the 200-day average (₹713.5) but not yet above the 50-day average (about ₹739), so the broader picture is a recovery inside a correction rather than a confirmed new uptrend.

Chart: indicative prices on dates taken from public quote pages (4 May to 4 Nov 2026), not a full daily series (no points shown for May to Jul); 50-DMA is approximate. Please refer to NSE for the official price history.

Momentum was neutral to soft at the 3 November close: RSI near 46, MACD below zero and only four of nine oscillators in bullish territory. The one-day rally has probably improved these readings, but they were not available on a verified basis at the time of writing; Investing.com shows a much more overbought reading (RSI near 79) that does not reconcile with the price history, so provider data should be checked live. Weekly MACD remains bearish and monthly MACD mildly bearish, while daily moving averages have turned supportive. A close above the 50-day average around ₹739 with rising volume would be the first sign of a trend change; failure to hold ₹713 would expose ₹681 and the pivot supports near ₹658–₹647. Reliable volume data could not be sourced, so it has not been assessed.